The reason behind that is that most of the industry, including contract manufacturers and camera lens suppliers, use American-origin technology and they would have to apply for a special license if they wish to continue business with Huawei after 15 September.

Kuo thinks that even if Huawei is somehow able to get smartphone parts after the deadline expires, its competitiveness and market share will still suffer. 

From thriving to barely surviving 

Huawei has apparently set high standards for components that go inside of its flagship smartphones and if it scales down production, the entire supply chain could suffer. This would force suppliers to reduce the price of their parts next year and may also lead to a technological slowdown.

Kuo says that the best-case scenario is that the company’s market share declines, and the worst-case scenario is that it exits the smartphone market. Per an earlier report, Huawei will lose 30 percent of its domestic market share to local rivals if the restrictions are not eased. Kuo’s predictions are in line with that and he believes Apple, Oppo, Vivo, and Xiaomi will greatly benefit from Huawei’s misfortunes.